The Three Stages of a Precious Metals Bull Market

In this appearance on the Michael Jaco Show, Dr. Kirk Elliott discusses a same-day pullback in metals following the Federal Reserve chairman's morning remarks, and reads it as short-term trading activity rather than a change in fundamentals. He walks through the tension inside the Fed's dual mandate, since lowering rates supports employment while raising them restrains inflation, and notes that Kevin Warsh emphasized price stability and a longer time horizon, which he takes as an implicit contrast with the Treasury's recent approach. He recaps the Treasury's doubling of its daily operations, comparing it to the easing of 2020 with the difference that rates are now elevated, and expects the Fed rather than the Treasury to set the eventual direction. He questions the official full-employment reading, pointing to discouraged workers who are no longer counted, vacant storefronts, and employers slowing entry-level hiring because of AI. He points to central bank gold buying by China, the European Union, India, Russia, and Poland as the more durable demand story, and outlines the three stages he uses to describe a long bull market. He invites viewers to schedule a consultation with the KEPM team.